The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) lowered its GDP prediction for 2020 from the expansion of 1.5-2.5 per cent to the contraction of 5-6 per cent.
The latest figure is now in line with the Bank of Thailand (BOT)’s estimation of a 5.3 per cent recession.
Representatives from the private sector, namely the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB), expect to go into a recession between 3-5 per cent in 2020.
The NESDC also showed that Thailand’s GDP contracted by 1.8 per cent in the first quarter.
“The latest yearly projection is based on the assumption that the coronavirus outbreak will be contained within the second quarter,” said Tossaporn Sirisamphan, NESDC’s secretary-general.
The projection is based on the continual reopening of businesses within the second quarter and the belief that tourism will return by the last quarter of 2020.
Tossaporn said that tourism has sharply dropped and government spending on investment and private investment is contracting.
Private consumption is still expanding in the first quarter; however, the figure was less in comparison to the fourth quarter of 2019.
The ongoing drought also continues to hamper farmers’ purchasing power, he added.
The NESDC predicts exports to contract by 8 per cent, private consumption to contract by 1.7 per cent and private investment to contract by 2.1 per cent in 2020.
