The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) said on Thursday that 8.4 million people are at risk of losing their job in 2020 because of COVID-19’s impact on the economy.
The total number of workers in the country dropped by 0.7 per cent year-on-year to 37.4 million in the first quarter of 2020. There were 390,000 unemployed persons, contributing to an unemployment rate of 1.03 per cent in the same period of time.
However, NESDC’s secretary-general Thosaporn Sirisumphand said the official statistics in the first quarter have yet to represent the full impact of the outbreak on the economy.
“Even though we [predict] 8.4 million people are at risk of being let go, we expect the unemployment rate to stay within the range of 3-4 per cent or about 2 million unemployed persons,” he said.
“This is based on the assumption that the outbreak will be contained [by the end of] May and that the country will continue to reopen more business and activities,” he added.
The government’s 1 trillion baht emergency loan, of which 400 billion baht will support grassroots economy via job creation, should be able to help with unemployment as well, according to Thosaporn.
However, about 520,000 new graduates will have a hard time looking for jobs in 2020, he added.
Of the 8.4 million people that are at risk of losing their job, about 2.5 million are in the tourism sector as many related businesses, such as hotels, have temporarily closed down and reduced their staff to stay afloat.
There are 3.9 million workers in this sector right now.
The jobs of 1.5 million people in the manufacturing sector are also at risk. Many businesses, such as carmakers, are temporarily closed.
There are 5.9 million workers in this sector right now.
The Federation of Thai Industries’ Automotive Industry Club told Thai Enquirer this week that about 300,000 people could lose their jobs if the government does not provide incentives for people to buy cars.
The remaining 4.4 million jobs that are at risk are in the retail and education industries. They currently employ about 10.3 million people right now.
The worst drought in 40 years is also impacting the output of 6 million farmers as well.
Household debt
The NESDC also said the official household debt to GDP ratio stands at 79.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2019 – the highest in 14 quarters (or three and a half years.)
The total outstanding for household debt reached 13.47 trillion baht, up 5 per cent from the same period in 2019.
Non-performing loans reached 156.28 billion baht in the first quarter of 2020, up 2.9 per cent from the previous quarter and accounted for 3.23 per cent of the total outstanding within the financial system.
