As Thailand progresses to phase 4 of the reopening, 95% of businesses are up and running. But one industry looks to remain grounded for much longer: the airline industry.
According to PwC, over 60% of the world’s commercial airlines are currently inactive. It looks to remain that way in the near future, as the United States, India, and Brazil continue to struggle with the virus, prompting many to question if already struggling airlines will make it past the next year.
But the question of whether the aviation industry can survive has a deeply human face. Covid-19 has drastically upended the lives of the thousands of pilots and flight crew members dependent on a globally mobile world for survival.
Many of them are making significant career shifts to adapt.
Temporary gig
Gomed Jangkramol is a longtime Thai Airways crew member who has recently pivoted to selling patongo, or Thai Donuts.
“I was planning to do this when I retired, just to learn about patongo so I could make it and share it with my friends. I never imagined that I would be doing this now.”
Gomed joined Thai Airways thirty years ago, at the height of its prestige. He recounts the not-so-distant past when working as a pilot or a cabin crew member was the ultimate marker of social prestige – how one had to have connections, to be of a certain height or just “be beautiful” to secure a job at Thai Airways,
Much has changed in recent years. Thai Airways has not been profitable since 2012 (save one good year in 2016), and officially filed for bankruptcy this May. The Thai government reduced its majority shareholding to below 50%, and there are reports of potential downsizing as the carrier undergoes the restructuring process.
As a highly ranked air steward, Gomed is aware of this pressure. “I’m old, and if they need to cut people, it’s likely going to be people with higher salaries, so I need to prepare.”
Gomed’s preparations have included, among other things, developing his patongo recipe to perfection. In the beginning, fellow Thai Airways staff came out to support him, buying patongo in bulk to give away to their families and friends. But for him, that was never the true test.
“Now my friends are gone, and I only have the real customers left,” he says, “my product has to be high quality, because then my reputation will spread through word of mouth.” He has come very far in the past two months: his reputation has grown, and he is now looking to open up his own shop with a seated area for people to enjoy his patongo. Of course, profit margins from selling fried dough are low – far too low to support his family and pay off remaining debt.
Thai Airways is still paying its employees, even if minimally. For that, Gomed is grateful. Flight staff at other airlines haven’t been as lucky.
Thanun Khantatatbumroong, a pilot at Lion Air, was furloughed in March and became a motorcycle delivery driver instead.
“Other crew members are selling food online, some are selling old clothing, shirts, and shoes because none of us have an income now. I was already adept at driving, so I decided to use my motorbike to make money.”
He began working in food delivery with Grab and then La La Move, but as the curfew has ended and life in Thailand is returning to normal, food delivery work has become more difficult to find. Now, most of his jobs come from the cabin crew LINE group, where other crew members hire him and his fellow pilots to deliver the food that they sell. “The work is steady, it comes every day,” he notes.
Like Gomed, Thanun is moving into something more permanent, also working to open up his own café. He is fixing it up himself, and a chainsaw whirrs in the background as he speaks: “I imagine it will be a very long time, probably towards the end of the year, when many of us will be able to fly again.”
For Lion Air pilots in particular, the opening of domestic travel routes provides little relief. “We only fly medium-haul routes, to Japan, China. I can’t even take on small flights to keep my license like others are doing.”
“Thailand may have recovered, but if other countries haven’t then we still can’t fly internationally. If there is no vaccine, then maybe we’ll be stuck here not just this year, but next year too.”
But again, he recognizes that he’s in a better situation than many. NokScoot is laying off staff in the thousands, cutting up to 50% of its workforce. Thai AirAsia is on the verge of collapse.
Thanun’s cynical outlook is mirrored by industry analysis. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimated that airlines will suffer a net loss of $39bn this quarter and cautioned that passenger revenue would not recover to 2019 levels until 2023. And the fate of Thai Airways still hangs in the balance.
While Gomed has no illusions for a quick recovery, he hopes to eventually get back to doing what he loves most – making his passengers happy.
“I don’t want to fry patongo for the rest of my life,” he declares. “I’m still praying…everyone who has worked there has been with the airline for a very long time, we all want to go back.”
