The pressure is building for the Prayut Chan-ocha administration after a massive ruling party shake-up and a cabinet reshuffle spurned on by widespread student protests and a struggling economy.
In normal democracies, having a clear majority in parliament, a rubber-stamp senate and a belligerent and far-reaching security force would usually mean the consolidation of power for the ruling government.
But the Prayut administration has recently been on the defensive after several high profile scandals and calls for resignation by the public.
The relatively quiet and peaceful months of the coronavirus lockdown are gone, replaced by mounting student protests which have regained most of the momentum the movement lost due to COVID-19.
Politically
Despite having the backing of the largest party, the prime minister has had to come out in the last two weeks to defend his new cabinet selection after news leaked that he picked more qualified technocrats to lead the economic team instead of choosing party stalwarts.
It speaks volumes about the fractured nature of the ruling Palang Pracharat Party that both the prime minister and new Party Leader General Prawit Wongsuwan has had to make public statements saying that there was no party disharmony contradicting public statements made by disgruntled MPs. (Read more here).
Not to mention that the reason there needs to be a new cabinet at all is because coup-leader Prawit is so used to launching coups that he had one inside his own party, choosing to replace former party leader Uttama Savanayana with himself.
That the Palang Pracharat party would do this in the middle of a global pandemic and at a time when the country is struggling to right its economic and social woes will only alienate the public further.
Not that the public needs any fuel in its opposition to this government.
Student protests, which had lost momentum due to the coronavirus shutdown, seems to have picked up where the demonstrators left off in February.
The students are back and protests have been held across the country, all with similar demands. While the student movement currently seems to be fractious without a central unifying leadership body, the protesters have all echoed each other in demanding that the government re-write the constitution, dissolve parliament and call for elections and stop harassing dissidents with state security.
Not since the 1970s have we seen students leave the campus to join large scale protests and if momentum continues to build and the students are able to reach other disparate groups then the Prayut government will really start to feel the pressure.
Constitutional Reforms
A central demand of the student protesters, constitutional reform has long been a touchy issue from the prime minister and the ruling party because of how much power the charter currently gives the government.
Under the military-drafted constitution, all 250 currently serving members of the upper house were appointed by the same man that is now the leader of the ruling party, General Prawit Wongsuwan.
That the Senate is allowed to vote for who gets to be prime minister is a farce but a useful tool for Prayut and Prawit to have to maintain their hold on power.
But with student protesters out on the street and opposition parties continually highlighting the unfair nature of the constitution, coalition partners Bhumjai Thai and the Democrats have become uneasy with the ruling alliance and have sought to deflect some of the anger by promising charter reforms.
In the last week, both parties have said that they will push for charter amendments with the prime minister.
If the pressure continues, Prayut may even acquiesce and offer small conciliatory fixes to the charter to deflect some of the criticisms. But analysts agree that the prime minister and his allies will unlikely offer wholesale changes to a constitution that enshrines their rule.
Economic woes
While the central bank has predicted that the economy will shrink by 8 per cent this year, analysts say that number is optimistic. The World Bank has said that the recession will likely be closer to 12 per cent while a survey of CEOs in Thailand predicted a 10 per cent contraction.
Regardless of how badly the economy will tank, the consensus is clear, the economy will suffer massively this year because of the coronavirus pandemic and the global economic situation.
It is unclear whether we will see a COVID vaccine by the end of the year but sources inside the cabinet have said that even if a vaccine somehow manifests itself, it is unlikely that Thailand will be rushing to open its borders despite its economic reliance on tourism.
No one person could fix Thailand’s economic woes but the appointment of technocrat Predee Daochai as Finance Minister should help. The government should move quickly to fill out the rest of the economic team that will be headed by Predee as any delay will be criticized by the opposition and the business sector.
If the economic situation cannot be alleviated, there will be more than just student protesters on the street.
Pandemic
Perhaps the one bright spot for the government in recent months is its handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Thailand is one of the most successful countries in the world at controlling the virus with a marginal death toll and a relatively low infection rate.
But the public has applauded Thailand’s healthcare sector (fairly or unfairly) for the country’s success in combatting the virus rather than the government.
A series of government missteps (read more here) in recent weeks have also put the pressure back on the government to continue managing the situation well and not become complacent and careless.
If there is a second wave of infections in the country, the government will be the one that will shoulder most of the blame.
