A new study by the International Crisis Group released this week shows that the economic ramifications of the coronavirus pandemic could have knock-on political consequences in Thailand.
According to the study by the Brussels-based think tank, the current financial crisis stemming from the pandemic will “strain a society simmering with discontent and a political order designed to thwart popular political participation.”
The group said that even before COVID-19, the economy was “faltering” and the crisis will likely exacerbate Thailand’s political and economic divide which in turn could trigger a social and political “reckoning.”
The group recommended political reform to encourage mass participation and accountability but said that significant challenges remain before such reforms could take place.
“The fundamental problem is political: the reforms necessary to upgrade Thailand’s economy run counter to the interests of the country’s elite,” the report said in its executive summary.
The writers of the ICG report also said that any political change would be meaningless without addressing the 2017 charter.
“Reform will have to start with amending the 2017 constitution,” the report said before saying that outside pressure is the most likely vehicle of change.
“This is unlikely; the drafters made it effectively un-amendable. Consequently, popular pressure remains, for the moment, the most viable mechanism to bring about change.”
With student protests increasing in recent weeks and with opposition parties finally getting their act together, the Prayut administration will likely face its first sustained challenge since Prayut Chan-ocha took power in a 2014 military coup.
