Debate over Thailand’s procurement of Chinese submarines have dominated social media and traditional media over the past several days in Thailand as society questions the wisdom of purchasing costly military equipment at a time when the country is facing its worst ever economic contraction.
The coronavirus pandemic has shuttered businesses and halted international tourism causing hardship for many across the country. Yet the government’s budget committee revealed on Saturday that it had approved the purchase of two-Chinese Yuan Class submarines worth 22.5 billion baht.
The economic merits of buying the submarines are questionable and worthy of debate but the following analysis is a look at the military aspect of the purchase.
What are submarines for?
Since its invention and proliferation in the early part of the 20th century, submarines have played an important role in military strategic planning. Invented at a time when battleship and dreadnoughts ruled the waves, the advent of submarines gave nations a wildcard to throw into battle.
These early submarines were much different from the ones we see today. Oftentimes they only went underwater to avoid detection and would have to surface and fight their battles on top of the water.
Despite their early limitations, the German submarine force in the First World War played a devastating role in commerce raiding and surprise attacks.
It set the stage for the central role that submarines would play in the Second World War for countries around the world. Submarines from the United Kingdom, Japan, the United States and Germany would sink hundreds of thousands of tons of commerce shipping and score critical success against surface fleets as the submarines themselves evolved in complexity and strategy.
The introduction and evolution of nuclear weapons and nuclear propulsion gave the submarine fleets of the world a different complexity after the Second World War as submarines could become mobile weapons platform operating underwater almost indefinitely.
What types of submarines are there and what kind are we getting?
Today, submarines are generally categorized into two different categories based not their propulsion, nuclear powered and diesel powered.
Nuclear powered submarines are quieter, can stay underwater as long as food supplies last, and are key equipment in the navy of all the great powers. Nuclear-powered attack subs can be devastating against opposing navy fleets and can still serve in the traditional role of commerce raising. Nuclear ballistic submarines like the United States’ Ohio Class or the Russian Typhoon Class subs are mobile missile platforms capable of operating independently from their navies and launching weapons of mass destruction should the situation arise. These submarines are basically mobile deterrents for superpowers flexing their muscle, offering an asymmetric launch platform that reinforces the Cold War concept of Mutually Assured Destruction.
Diesel submarines on the other hand are louder and cannot stay underwater as long as their nuclear counterparts. But they are also cheaper and numerous, dotting navies across the world including those in Southeast Asia. (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Myanmar all have diesel-powered submarines)
This is the type of the submarine that Thailand will be purchasing.
Does a country like Thailand need a submarine?
The question is hard to answer because it depends for what purpose the submarines are being purchased for.
Peacetime
Submarines at times of peace act as deterrents and power projection, a costly exercise in muscle flexing that serves no other purpose. Submarines, unlike the navy’s traditional ships, do not have a major peacetime role. They cannot be used for humanitarian relief or to ferry supplies to troubled regions.
Not to mention Thailand has already spent money on one costly power-projection project that now sits in harbor as a floating museum ship, the HTMS Chakri Nareubet. The world’s smallest aircraft carrier was a costly purchase during a time of economic prosperity but even then was regarded as a luxury we could barely afford. Today, the Chakri Nareubet is barely sea worthy and does not even have aircraft it can launch.
Wartime
Unlike their nuclear counterparts, diesel submarines are more vulnerable to detection by modern Anti-Submarine Warfare equipment – rendering them less effective against fleets.
Submarines can still play a major role in any conflict as commerce raiders, praying on the supply chains and commercial shipping of adversaries.
But Thailand is unlikely to go to war with a country thousands of kilometers away, we are not a major world power.
Our conflicts, historically, have been with our neighbors which makes commerce raiding an unlikely scenario. The geographical layout of Thailand’s littoral zones also make submarine warfare difficult, the Gulf of Thailand isn’t very deep with an average depth of only 60 meters.
Unlike Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia, we do not have longstanding issues in the South China Sea or major holdings in the Pacific Ocean.
Conclusion and alternative
Submarines seems to be an unnecessary luxury for a country like Thailand. That being said, our fleet is in need of modernization but large capital ships like cruisers and destroyers may not be the way forward for a country likely to fight more in coastal and littoral combat zones.
Instead of focusing limited resources on unnecessary equipment that will likely never be used in anger, small littoral combat ships are a much better purchase for a country like Thailand. Able to patrol coasts, rivers and the gulf, LCS purchases could serve in humanitarian relief and crime fighting capacities.
