The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) said this week that the Thai economy has reached its bottom in the second quarter and is on its way to recovery.
Exports, manufacturing, domestic consumption and private investment all dropped in April with only public spending expanding.
JSCCIB said these results means that it will maintain its prediction that the country will go into a recession of 3-5 per cent. The prediction is in line with the Bank of Thailand (BOT)’s 5.3 per cent contraction.
Predee Daochai, Chairman of Thai Bankers’ Association and acting chairman of the JSCCIB, said business activities are returning as the country has slowly lifted lockdown measures.
“The reopening of businesses and the government’s relief measures is slowly boosting the economy from its lowest point, he said.
However, the people’s purchasing power is still low as many people have lost their jobs from the outbreak and it has changed consumer behavior, he said.
The JSCCIB had earlier predicted that up to 7 million people could lose their job.
With the global economy also due to contract around 5 per cent this year, the JSCCIB expects Thai exports to contract by 5-10 per cent in 2020. The BOT also expects an export value contraction of at least 8 per cent.
The Department of Foreign Trade said this week that cross-border trade has dropped by 43.33 billion baht or 9.45 per cent year-on-year to 415.24 billion baht in the first 4 months of 2020.
They have also lowered the border trade target from 1.8 trillion baht to no more than 1.5 trillion baht in 2020.
