Thailand’s economic team led by Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak and Finance Minister Uttama Savanayana resigned from their posts on Thursday, forced out by internal politics within the ruling Palang Pracharath Party.
With the economy set to contract by at least 8 per cent, the government has begun searching for the right candidates to turn things around and reassure the business community that it still has things under control.
Pavida Pananond, an associate professor at Thammasat Business School told Thai Enquirer that it is unclear if a new economic team could turn things around.
“The reason for them quitting is because of party politics in Palang Pracharath,” she said.
“I think the changing the whole economic team amid the calamity caused by Covid-19 will not provide confidence for anyone looking at the Thai economy which is suffering severely from the pandemic,” she added.
“This is like changing the generals during a serious war that we are not winning,” she added.
According to sources within the government and in the financial sector, many high profile names have rejected the government’s advance because the economic portfolio represents a “no-win” situation.
Despite this, several names have emerged as likely contenders to take over the economic portfolio and the finance ministry.
Finance Minister
One of the likeliest candidate to join the cabinet is Predee Daochai, the Co-President of Kasikorn Bank and Chairman of the Thai Bankers Association, who is tipped to be the next finance minister.
Predee has spent much of his career in the banking sector, specifically with Kasikorn Bank.
He has also worked with Prayut and his cabinet before, having been handpicked by the coup government in 2014 to serve in the rubber-stamp National Legislative Assembly.
Supant Mongkolsuthree, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) told Thai Enquirer that Predee’s qualifications are “well-suited” for the job having worked with Predee on the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking.
Supant, however, warned that the challenge was not small and that there were significant roadblocks ahead.
“The economic situation is extremely dire and the situation is not conducive for its recovery so we need a cabinet that can work well together for,” he said.
Stanley Kang, the chairman of the Joint Foreign Chambers of Commerce in Thailand, echoed Supant and warned that the latter half of 2020 to the first half of 2021 will be, “extremely challenging.”
Kang said that foreign investors are waiting to see who will take over the economic positions and that having clear policies are essential to building consumer confidence.
The Long Game
Part of the reason the government has had trouble filling the economic portfolio is because economists and experts like Kang are predicting a worldwide recession not only until the end of 2020 but possible all of 2021 as well and prospective candidates are worried about their reputation.
This, coupled with possible political instability in Thailand and the region, has given pause to many would-be ministers who worry that they would not be given enough time to implement a cohesive strategy.
The candidates also worry that they would be blamed should the economy tank further.
Prommin Lertsuridej, a former deputy prime minister and founding members of the CARE Group, told Thai Enquirer that the coronavirus will not disappear from the global scene for at least another two years and that any economic team must be given time to implement their strategies, something that is not guaranteed.
“There must be a balance between outbreak prevention and the management of economic problems and no matter who comes in, they will have to be aware this predicament,” he said.
“For me, it does not really matter who will be in the new economic team if the government does not realise this problem,” Prommin said.
Tim Leelahaphan, Thailand economist at Standard Chartered Bank, told Thai Enquirer that the economy is on the right track to recovery but the road is a long one.
He said foreign investors are paying special attention on who will replace Somkid as measures such as the redevelopment of the Eastern Economic Corridor and the progress of various other mega projects were started under Somkid and it remains to be seen whether the projects would be continued.
Tim also said that the sooner Prayut appoints an economic team, the better, because the longer the search takes, the less confidence the business community will have in the government.
