Representatives from the private sector, namely the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB), has on Thursday lowered its projection for Thailand’s gross domestic product in 2020.
They expect the country to go into a recession between 3-5 per cent in 2020 compared to its February projection of a 2-2.5 per cent expansion. This is based on the assumption that exports will contract by 5-10 per cent with an estimated loss of 44 billion baht in 2020.
The new estimation is more in line with the Bank of Thailand (BOT)’s 5.3 per cent recession but it is better than the International Monetary Fund’s prediction last week of a 6.7 per cent recession.
“From our assessment of the situation and the government’s relief measures, we expect the GDP to contract by 3 to 5 per cent which is less than IMF’s prediction,” said Supant Mongkolsuthree, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) and the current chair of the JSCCIB.
The joint panel consists of the FTI, the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Thai Bankers’ Association.
Supant said the JSCCIB does not expect to see a V-shape economic recovery. The recovery of the tourism sector will not be seen until 2021 as well.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand’s Governor Yuthasak Supasorn said in April that the number of visitors to Thailand could drop by 60 per cent from 39 million in 2019 down to 16 million in 2020.
Foreign-tourism receipts is expected to drop from 1.9 trillion baht in 2019 to 1 trillion baht in 2020.
Supant voiced the same concern as Yuthasak that foreign tourists will not be returning in full force until a vaccine is found.
“Tourism will not be able to lift its head this year,” Supant said. “It will depend on the global outbreak situation and the development of a vaccine which means that we might have to wait until [2021].”
Supant added that a public-private committee to discuss the pros and cons of joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) should be set up first before the government goes ahead with an official negotiation.
Kalin Sarasin, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, also said the private sector is now working with the government to try and maintain the level of people working from home at no less than 50 per cent for another month.
